So they actually have done it. Well, in another 7 hrs we’ll see if they actually can pull off a decent show, but for all intents-&-purposes the people responsible for the Academy Awards have pulled off getting an awards show up & running in 10 days. We now know that there would have been a "show" no matter what: one heavy on movie & past Oscar ceremony clips (i.e. NO stars) or one with all the glitz & glamour that we have become accustomed too (read: Joan bagging on everyone while Melissa roles her eyes like a 15-yr old embarrassed teen). Apparently Jon Stewart has brought on extra writers, & they have been working around the clock, to get his material ready for the big show. The biggest kudos has to go to Gil Cates (the big show’s producer), who was apparently instrumental in getting the 2 sides in the writers strike back to the table so the strike could be settled. Although I’m sure his efforts were not altogether altruistic (he obviously had a big old horse named Oscar in that race), I for one am grateful as his efforts seem to have salvaged many of our fav tv shows (13 instead of 8 episodes of Lost…yay) from dying a slow death.
But enough of that. On this gloomy, rainy So. Cal day we will be treated to gowns, tuxes, production numbers, jokes, boring speeches, & maybe even an actual genuine moment of emotion (don’t hold your breath though, this is Hollywood congratulating itself after all). I have never pretended to be a movie expert & I frankly have not even seen all of the films from the major categories, but I would like to look into my crystal ball & tell you who I want to win & who will win. Make sure to give your predictions in the comments section below & to check back on Monday to see if I should retire my crystal ball or keep it for another year.
Best Supporting Actress
Nominated: Cate Blanchett (I’m Not There), Ruby Dee (American Gangster), Saoirse Ronan (Atonement), Amy Ryan (Gone Baby Gone), Tilda Swinton (Michael Clayton)
Who I Want Win: I would love to see Tilda Swinton win. First, because I’ve actually seen the movie, second because she was riveting as a corporate attorney who didn’t quite buy into the story she was spinning, but oh did she keep spinning it.
Who Will Win: Cate Blanchett. If you don’t know about this movie, she plays Bob Dylan for a portion of it (yep, Bob Dylan). Oscar voters love it when actresses alter their appearance to go out on a limb for a role (e.g. Hillary Swank – Boys Don’t Cry). She’s nominated also in the Best Actress category, but this is probably her best shot.
Best Supporting Actor
Nominated: Casey Affleck (The Assassination of Jesse James…), Javier Bardem (No Country for Old Men), Phillip Seymour Hoffman (Charlie Wilson’s War), Hal Holbrook (Into the Wild), Tom Wilkinson (Michael Clayton)
Who I Want to Win: Definitely Tom Wilkinson. His performance is just amazing, you are never quite sure whether he is truly mad or a genius.
Who Will Win: Javier Bardem. From what my parents have told me (honestly I think they’ve seen every movie nominated….I can hardly wait for retirement) he should win it hands down. Plus, I think he deserves some sort of award for living with that hair (yes that’s his hair) for the entire filming.
Best Actress
Nominated: Cate Blanchett (Elizabeth: The Golden Age), Julie Christie (Away From Her), Marion Cotillard (La Vie en Rose), Laura Linney (The Savages), Ellen Page (Juno).
Who I Want to Win: Do you even need to ask? Ellen Page. She was brilliant, in every sense of the word. My only hesitation is that sometimes an Oscar early in a career can be the kiss of death (see Mira Sorvino) & I really want to see soooo much more from young lady.
Who Will Win: Julie Christie seems to be the fav right now for her turn as an Alzheimer’s patient, but frankly this is probably the most open race of them all, so be on the look-out for an upset (say maybe Laura Linney)
Best Actor
Nominated: George Clooney (Michael Clayton), Daniel-Day Lewis (There Will be Blood), Johnny Depp (Sweeny Todd), Tommy Lee Jones (In the Valley of Elah), Viggo Mortensen (Eastern Promises).
Who I Want To Win: George Clooney. This is for totally selfish, non-performance related reasons (although he is fantastic in the movie). I think that very few men look better in a tux & very few people can deliver an honest, funny & sincere speech off the cuff. George Clooney fits both soooo well.
Who Will Win: Daniel-Day Lewis. This won’t upset me too much because I love him too. He comes out of hiding every 5 or so years just to remind us how brilliant he is & then he retreats nicely back into his private life which he has managed to maintain so well. He should honestly run a course for celebrities on "how to not let fame destroy your life."
Best Director
Nominated: Paul Thomas Anderson (There Will be Blood), Ethan & Joel Coen (No Country for Old Men), Tony Gilroy (Michael Clayton), Jason Reitman (Juno), Julian Schnabel (The Diving Bell & The Butterfly).
Who I Want to Win: Definitely Jason Reitman for Juno. His use of the slow fade-to-black, the cross-country team running by, & quick, sharp wit were just genius. Admittedly he had some amazing material to put on the screen, but he certainly was the vision behind the movie.
Who Will Win: The Coen Brothers. The other nominees are pretty much all newcomers, & if there was ever an award where Academy voters reward a body of someone’s work, it is Best Director.
Best Picture
Nominated: Atonement, Juno, Michael Clayton, No Country For Old Men, There Will Be Blood
Who I want to Win: Juno. Like I said in my review, I believe it was the best movie of last year. I’m actually fairly proud of myself that I have seen 3 of the 5 nominees, but for me Juno will always stick out. The movie is so different than what we are used to seeing, it really can’t be categorized into any genre. And frankly I think it holds its own with any of these nominees.
Who Will Win: No Country For Old Men. But this is where it gets interesting. I think this movie is a shoe-in if the Coen Brothers win Best Director. If they don’t then I think the race for Best Pic gets blown wide open. If that is the case I think that Atonement may pick up the big award, partly because it has no other major noms, & because Academy voters love period pieces, especially tragic ones.
So, we’ll see in another few hours if my clairvoyance is in tune with Academy voters (which if it is, I’m a bit frightened), or if I should pack it in as far as prognostications go. Either way, it will be fun to watch, even if it is just to see the celebs deal with the rain (I’m personally going to be on the look-out for frizzy hair & wet trains). Have fun all & enjoy!
you were pretty close with your pics! what did you think of the show? the only big surprise for me was marion cottilard for la vie en rose, which i haven’t seen. she is lovely. i’m also kind of in love with javier bardem – he cleans up well! i’m disappointed for ellen paige – she’s so cute- but i have no doubt she’ll be a regular at the awards.