Okay, okay. I know that I pondered in a recent post whether award shows were even relevant anymore. But I feel like I owe it to you, as your resident Movie Mom, to weigh in on the whole contest. I will watch, like most of you, partly out of curiosity (who will say/do something crazy & can Hugh Jackman really deliver as host) & partly out of obligation (you wouldn’t want to be the only one around the water cooler or school yard to have missed some big moment…which let’s be honest isn’t likely to happen). The thing is I never said that you shouldn’t watch the Oscar telecast (or that I wouldn’t be watching), just that I don’t really know how much of an impact the results have on moviegoers .
That all being said, let’s dive right in & see who’s going to take home the naked, gold, bald guy.
Best Supporting Actress
Usually the first category to be awarded right out of the gate just to catch our interest. And I’m fairly certain that “the Academy” knows it. This is where the shockers truly happen (i.e. Marisa Tomei in My Cousin Vinny….although we all know she totally deserved that one if only for her whole “biological clock is ticking like this…” speech). Funny that Marisa is nominated again this year for her role in The Wrestler.
Also nominated: Penelope Cruz (Vicki Christina Barcelona), Amy Adams (Doubt), Taraji P. Henson (The Curious Case of Benjamin Button), & Viola Davis (Doubt).
Who Will Win: Apparently this is Cruz’s to lose.
Dark Horse: Tomei or Davis. The problem Davis has is that Amy Adams (also from Doubt) is also nominated & often Academy voters split their votes. As far as Tomei is concerned, voters are much more inclined to reward her costar, Mickey Rourke, for his career-re-inventing role. Doesn’t make sense, but often voters want to honour as many movies as possible & spread their votes around. They’re show-business people, folks, most of the time logic isn’t on the menu.
Best Supporting Actor:
Let’s see. Who’s nominated? Josh Brolin (Milk), Michael Shannon (Revolutionary Road), Philip Seymour Hoffman (Doubt), Robert Downey Jr. (Tropic Thunder), & let’s see, who am I forgetting….
Who Will Win: Heath Ledger for his career- (& unfortunately life-) defining turn as the Joker in The Dark Knight.
Dark Horse: None. This is Ledger’s. Hands down. As an interesting sidenote, the Academy has said that the actual award would go to his daughter (held in trust until she is 18 by her mother Michelle Williams). No word as of yet as to who would actually accept the award on Ledger’s behalf.
Best Animated Film:
Nominated: Kung Fu Panda, Bolt, & WALL-E.
Who Will Win: WALL-E. Absolutely. There was even talk of it being nominated for Best Picture. And the more you learn about this movie (yes, I am a nerd & have watched all of the extras on the disc including the commentary by director Andrew Stanton. As I said…nerd!) the more you realize just how genius it is. The people at Pixar are geniuses who surround themselves with more geniuses. My dream is to go spend a day at Pixar & just soak it all up. Yep, nerd!
Dark Horse: I just don’t see one. Maybe Panda because it is not from Disney.
Original Screenplay:
Nominated: Frozen River, Happy-Go-Lucky, In Bruges, Milk, WALL-E.
Who Will Win: I’m going with WALL-E. Just see my answer above. Genius.
Dark Horse: Milk. This may be the Academy’s way of honouring Milk, since Best Picture seems to already be a lock for another movie (I wonder what?!?).
Adapted Screenplay:
Nominated: This category is just so loaded. It is amazing. Two based on Tony-award winning plays in Doubt & Frost/Nixon. One based on a short-story by some guy named F. Scott Fitzgerald (Curious Case of Benjamin Button). Another based on an international best-selling book which was also a selection of Oprah’s Book Club (The Reader). Finally, a little-engine-that-could based on an award-winning novel (Slumdog Millionaire).
Who Will Win: Shall we start Slumdog’s coronation now?!? I think the key here is “adapted”, & no-one did it better than Slumdog’s Simon Beaufoy in intertwining the character’s past with the answers to the Millionaire questions. Brilliant.
Dark Horse: It’s a toss up. Maybe Button because of that whole “spreading the weatlh around” theory. But I’d be pretty shocked if it was anything other than Slumdog.
Original Score/Song
I wouldn’t normally review these categories, but there is no question with both. It’s Slumdog Millionaire all the way. Only question is in the Song category, whether it will be Jai Ho or O Saya. Honestly, who could vote against this?!?! As a little aside, dance studios around Los Angeles have seen such a huge increase in the demand for “Bollywood” dance classes that many of them now have waiting lists. Certainly looks like fun!
Best Actress
Nominated: Meryl Streep (Doubt), Kate Winslet (The Reader), Anne Hathaway (Rachel Getting Married), Angelina Jolie (Changeling), Melissa Leo (Frozen River).
Who Will Win: It seems like this is a race between two of Oscar’s most nominated women. Meryl has 15 noms, while Kate has 6 (the youngest actress to receive that many, besting Bette Davis). I’m thinking that it’s Kate’s year. Oddly enough she is nominated for her performance in The Reader & not for her turn in Revolutionary Road. Don’t even get me started on Revolutionary Road & the Academy completely overlooking Leonardo Dicaprio yet again. Boggles the mind.
Dark Horse: Anne Hathaway. I did not see this movie, but from what I hear the role is such a departure for Hathaway that she has freed herself from the typecasting of her previous roles.
Best Actor
Nominated: Sean Penn (Milk), Mickey Rourke (The Wrestler), Brad Pitt (Benjamin Button), Frank Langella (Frost/Nixon), Richard Jenkins (The Visitor).
Who Will Win: Oh my. Total toss up here. Mickey Rourke won the Golden Globe. But the Golden Globes have always been a bit out there in awarding the major awards. Plus, the one complaint I have heard is that people don’t really see that Mickey Rourke was acting. Just playing Mickey Rourke. Frank Langella may be the only person who can protray Nixon so that you feel empathy for him. And that is quite a feat. But I think that Sean Penn is going to take home the prize, for his honest (good & bad) portrayal of not only Harvey Milk, but politics in general.
Dark Horse: I love Richard Jenkins. Also love the idea of a character actor getting the top prize in the lead acting category. And if the award was for honest-to-goodness hard work, Jenkins would have it hands-down. He just has 3 other guys to climb over (not to mention a little guy named Brad Pitt) to get it.
Best Director
Nominated: Stephen Daldry (The Reader), David Fincher (Benjamin Button), Gus Van Sant (Milk), Ron Howard (Frost/Nixon), Danny Boyle (Slumdog Millionaire).
Who Will Win: DANNY BOYLE!!!!! One word. Genius. Honestly, when I found out that a skinny Irish man had directed Slumdog, I was floored. Especially since he had never been to India before making the movie. He brought India to life in such vivid reality, but never descended to the easy-ploy of “look how hard these kids have it in the slums.” That was just where they were from. Just the setting. Not the message.
Dark Horse: I don’t even want to think about there being one!
Best Picture:
Nominated: The Reader, Milk, Slumdog Millionaire, Frost/Nixon, Benjamin Button
Who Will Win: I’ll get to that in just a second, but I have to say that if there was one place I would like to be today it would be on my bum at an AMC Theatre watching all 5 Best Picture nominees. Yep, that’s right, certain AMC Theatres in the U.S. were screening all 5 Best Pic nominees for $30 (including unlimited popcorn). All 13 hours & 29 min of them. Oh, if I had no commitments. So, who will win? Who else?
SLUMDOG MILLIONAIRE!!!!! There is no doubt it will win. I’d be floored if it didn’t.
Dark Horse: Again, I just don’t even want to think about that.
So there you have it folks. Those are my picks. They aren’t scientific. I haven’t even seen all of the nominated movies. But we’ll see Sunday night how I do. Get out your scorecards.
I just wanted to give you all a heads up to keep a look out for the winner of one of the four acting awards to bring a box of Airborne on stage with them. Apparently the people at Airborne have promised $1 million to the actor’s fav charity if they are the first to go up there & hold up a box of Airborne & thank Airborne for the award. Airborne took out a 3/4 page ad in the LA Times this week, so we’ll see if anyone has the guts to go up there & do it.